Near East University, using artificial intelligence models by making annual projections of epidemics for 22 years for each of Influenza A H1N1, Chikungunya, Dengue, Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Yellow Fever, HIV, Influenza A H3N2, Influenza A H5N1, West Nile and SARS-CoV-1 viruses, revealed which viruses can cause major epidemics in which years.
Although COVID-19 has not actually ended, the social concerns it has created seem to have almost completely disappeared. So, what awaits us in the future? Are other epidemics at risk of turning into pandemics? Near East University has carried out an important study that provides clear answers to these questions and much more by making use of artificial intelligence and mathematical models.
Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Dilber Uzun Özşahin, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Cenk Serhan Özverel, Assist. Prof. Dr. Berna Uzun, Assist. Prof. Dr. Abdullahi Garba Usman, Dr. Nazife Sultanoğlu and Dr. Cemile Bağkur from Near East University carried out a study revealing results of 22-year projections made for each of the influenza A H1N1, Chikungunya, Dengue, Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Yellow Fever, HIV, Influenza A H3N2, Influenza A H5N1, West Nile and SARS-CoV-1 viruses and demonstrated which virus can cause pandemics in which years.
Dangue Fever virus can reach 3.5 million and Chikungunya Virus 1.1 million cases
The research titled “Prediction of Possible Outbreaks in the Future with Artificial Intelligence Application. First Outbreak With Which Virus? When?" and presented to the Presidency, the Prime Ministry, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of National Education, the National Assembly and the Embassy of the Republic of Turkey in Nicosia reveals that Influenza A H1N1 virus might cause major epidemics with the number of approximately 550,000 cases in 2032; Chikungunya Virus might cause major epidemics that would affect the world with approximately 1.1 million cases in 2037 and Dengue Fever Virus with approximately 3.5 million cases in 2042.
According to another result, the increase in HIV infections will continue in the next 22 years, similar to the past. On the other hand, the Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola, Yellow Fever, Influenza A H3N2, Influenza A H5N1, West Nile and SARS-CoV-1 viruses do not have the potential to turn into a pandemic.
Prof. Dr. İrfan Suat Günsel: “As a requirement of our responsibility to humanity, we present our report, which we have prepared as a result of our past experiences, and which determines the possible major epidemics of the future, to the attention of the public.”
Referring to their studies during the COVID-19 pandemic, Near East University Chairman of the Board of Trustees Prof. Dr. İrfan Suat Günsel said, “Olirin, the protective nasal spray that we have developed by mobilizing all our resources since the first day of the pandemic, has received a usage permit from the Ministry of Health of our country after the Ministry of Health of Turkey, as well as the domestic and national PCR Diagnosis and Variant Analysis Kit, mobile and hospital type respirators. We worked on many projects to meet the needs that emerged during this period”. “During the pandemic period, with the reports prepared by our scientists using artificial intelligence and mathematical models, while providing our state with data on managing the pandemic process, we have fulfilled a very important task by answering the uncertainties that cause concern on a strong scientific basis." Prof. Dr. Günsel further added; "We present our report, which we have prepared as a result of our past experiences, and which determines the possible major epidemics of the future, to the attention of the public as a requirement of our responsibility to humanity."
Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ: “We analyzed the data of 11 RNA viruses we obtained from WHO, CDC, ECDC, PAHO with 4 different hybrid artificial intelligence models.”
Emphasizing that artificial intelligence models have reached a very important accuracy rate in decision-making processes, Near East University Acting Rector Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ said the study they reported under the title of “Prediction of Possible Outbreaks in the Future with Artificial Intelligence Application. First Outbreak With Which Virus? When?" revealed important results about the major epidemics of the future.
Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ stating that they obtained the data regarding the mutation rates of 11 RNA viruses used in the study, presence of vaccine, Ro values, the annual number of cases and deaths from important institutions such as the World Health Organization (WHO), CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention), ECDC (European Center for Disease and Prevention) and PAHO (Pan American Health Organization) covering the years 2000-2022, further said, “The data observed for each virus type since 2000, Linear Regression-Gaussian Process Regression (LR-GPR), Linear Regression-Least Square Boost (LR-LSQBOOST), Linear Regression-Support Vector Machine (LR-SVM) and the results were obtained by analyzing 4 different hybrid artificial intelligence models such as Linear Regression-Regression Tree (LR-RT)." Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ also explained the accuracy of the study they prepared as 88 percent to 99 percent.
Reminding that Dengue Fever and Chikungunya viruses, one of the viruses with the highest potential to create a major epidemic, are spread by mosquitoes, Prof. Dr. Tamer Şanlıdağ warned that increasing temperatures due to global warming and climate changes cause the spread of hosts that accelerate the transmission of these diseases.
